The Bear Case
A provocative look at the most extreme downside scenario: could AI trigger a systemic market collapse by 2028? This section unpacks the logic behind the “intelligence crisis” thesis, and why some believe it’s more than just theory.
The 2028 Intelligence Crisis | Apis Partners
The 2028 Intelligence Crisis
30 April 2026
Introduction
Is artificial intelligence about to trigger a market crash on the scale of 2008? That is the central claim of one of the most widely-circulated investment theses of the past year.
In this presentation, Udayan Goyal works through the argument in full: the five-link doom loop that predicts a -57% market drawdown by mid-2028, the structural rebuttals that undermine it, the bull case that points in the opposite direction, and our own assessment of what is actually plausible over the next two to three years.
Part I
Part II
The Rebuttal
Is the crisis narrative overstated? We examine the strongest counterarguments, separating what’s directionally right from what’s realistically possible on a 2028 timeline.
Part III
The Bull Case
A fundamentally different perspective: AI as an accelerant, not a disruptor. This section explores how incumbents, and entire markets, could expand as intelligence scales.
Part IV
The Plausible Scenario
Cutting through extremes, what’s actually likely to happen? We outline a grounded view of market impact, risk, and opportunity over the next 2–3 years.
